This paper presents a novel-methodology to compensate for the poor characterization of high-permeability structures (excess-K: vugs, karsts and super-K features), and non-fault-related-fractures, in naturally fractured Brazilian Pre-Salt carbonate reservoirs. These heterogeneities are often undetectable in well logs and seismic data, but significantly impact well performance. The methodology aims to enhance the representation of such features within dynamic simulation models, improving reservoir characterization and supporting more reliable data-assimilation and forecasting processes. The methodology involves: (1) upscaling high-fidelity fine-grid models to coarser-grids while preserving dynamic behavior, (2) identifying wells with productivity/injectivity mismatches due to a poor excess-K characterization, (3) applying a data assimilation (DA) process to minimize the mismatch between modeled and measured wells production and injection rates by updating the absolute permeability of the matrix. The novelty of the process is that the permeability field is updated by creating a mask (3D property) built by kriging permeability increments estimated from the well cells with productivity/injectivity issues. Therefore, the DA aims to find the least increments of permeability needed for each well such that when this mask is summed with the matrix permeability field all wells present good productivity/injectivity matching with history data. The methodology was applied to a dual-porosity/dual-permeability (DP/DK) compositional reservoir model. Two distinct well behaviors were observed: (1) wells located within fracture zone (12 of 33) showed good productivity/injectivity alignment with historical data and (2) the remaining 21 wells, located away from fracture zone, exhibited significantly poorer productivity/injectivity. This mismatch was attributed to the absence of excess-K features in the original matrix permeability model (Km-field). The optimization process was applied to these 21 wells. For each well a specific Ki-value was settled, defining input-points for kriging. The resulting kriged permeability correction volume (mask) was summed with the Km-field to generate an updated-permeability model. This process was repeated until all wells presented good productivity/injectivity matching with historical data. The process not only corrected the simulated dynamic responses, but also revealed key spatial permeability patterns that had not been captured in the static model. The results served as feedback to the geologists and enabled iterative improvement of the geological model, supporting a more integrated and realistic characterization. Overall, the results validate the methodology as a robust tool for incorporating unresolved high-permeability features in reservoir simulation and improving the quality of data assimilation. This study introduces an automated, iterative probabilistic data-assimilation framework that directly integrates geostatistical kriging with permeability adjustments for excess-Kstructures. The approach provides bidirectional feedback to geological modeling and allows the generation of realistic ensembles for data assimilation workflows. By combining geo-statistics within an uncertainty reduction scheme, the method addresses key modeling gaps encountered when modelling a Brazilian Pre-Salt carbonate.
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Investigation of Biases Caused by Model-Based Optimization Processes for Reservoir Management
In reservoir management, many decisions are made considering model-based production forecasts and optimization processes. These approaches can generate biases and the actual production and economic return may be overestimated. One of the reasons for these biases is the optimization process itself (procedure bias). Thus, the objective of this work is to investigate biases caused by model-based optimization processes using synthetic benchmark cases, analyzing the magnitude and the impact on future decisions.
We use synthetic benchmarks composed of: (1) an ensemble of data-assimilated simulation models; (2) a subset of this ensemble, named Representative Models (RMs); (3) a reference case, used as the real response of the reservoir (ground truth). Two case studies are analyzed: one focused on design variables (development phase), and the other on control variables (management phase). We demonstrate how specialized and robust strategies (resulting from nominal and robust optimizations, respectively) behave in relation to the ensemble of models and in relation to the reference case, using Net Present Value (NPV) and Expected Monetary Value (EMV) as objective functions.
The results confirm the presence of bias and overestimated forecasts caused by optimization processes. In Case Study 1 (development phase), the robust strategy showed an expected return improvement of 45% due to optimization, while the actual gain was only 6%. Specialized strategies presented differences between expected and actual economic gains ranging from 38% to 179% (with an average of 79%). In Case Study 2 (management phase), the robust strategy yielded a 4.1% expected increase in economic return compared to a 2.5% actual gain, with specialized strategies showing an average overestimation of 38% for the specialized strategies. The bias was stronger in Case Study 1 due to the greater impact of development variables on reservoir performance. Risk curve and boxplot analyses showed that strategies tend to become overly specialized to the model in which they were optimized, may leading to suboptimal decisions when applied to the real field.
By employing synthetic benchmarks with known reference cases, this work quantifies the overestimation introduced by optimization processes, providing valuable insights to help practitioners recognize and account for procedure bias, reducing the risk of overconfident model-based decisions in real-field applications.
Fast Objective Function Estimator Based on Parametric Dynamic Mode Decomposition for Wag-Co2 Injection in Carbonate Reservoirs
Objective/Scope
Fast-objective function estimators (FOFE) are often used to speed up reservoir management. This work presents a FOFE constructed with the parametric Dynamic Mode Decomposition (DMDp) method for a carbonate reservoir with WAG-CO2 injection. The FOFE results are then compared to simulation results to analyze the FOFE’s efficiency.
Method/Procedure/Process
We present an example of how changes in the production strategy can affect reservoir behavior. The FOFE utilizes snapshots of gas and water saturation of numerical simulation runs with different sizes of WAG-CO2 cycles to predict the snapshots and fluid rates of a production strategy with a desired WAG-CO2 cycle size. The FOFE utilizes the DMDp method to calculate the saturation snapshots and material balance equations to calculate oil, water, and gas rates. Unlike the standard where snapshots are stacked up for multiple parameters, leading to increased computational costs, here we perform interpolation directly on the reduced Koopman operator. This leads to enhanced performance as the time eigenvalues are no longer shared between all parameters. The case study is the public access benchmark UNΊSFM-ΓV-2022, a carbonate reservoir model with characteristics of the Brazilian pre-salt. This model represents a developed reservoir with a WAG-CO2 recovery method for a compositional simulator with historical data.
Results/Observations/Conclusions
For this work, the FOFE utilizes snapshots of two reservoir simulations, one with a WAG-CO2 cycle size of 6 months and the other with 18 months, to predict the states of a production strategy with 12 months of WAG-CO2 cycle. The FOFE results of gas, oil, and water are compared to a simulation result with the same production strategy. The comparisons for fluid dynamics are shown for reservoir conditions, and their curves with relative differences are provided. The FOFE can predict the states of a different field scenario, dispensing the necessity of extra numerical simulation runs. This result is promising for production optimization problems which require a significant amount of simulation runs to incorporate the many reservoir uncertainties, as it is observed in highly heterogeneous carbonate reservoirs.
Novel/Additive Information
The innovation of this work is the utilization of the DMDp in a highly heterogeneous reservoir with three-phase flow and WAG-CO2 injection utilizing commercial software. This FOFE can be utilized to reduce the time and computational effort necessary for the decision-making process involving the control variable of WAG-CO2 cycle size.
Numerical Simulation Study of Relative Permeability Hysteresis in a Fractured Carbonate Reservoir Subjected to Water-Alternating-Gas Injection (WAG-CO2)
Numerical Study on the Impact of Advanced Phenomena in a Fractured Carbonate Reservoir Subjected to WAG-CO2 Injection
Advanced phenomena related to water-alternating-gas (WAG) injection are usually neglected in numerical simulations. This work evaluates the impact of different physical phenomena on field indicators, considering a typical pre-salt carbonate reservoir (UNISIM-II-D-CO, a dual-por dual-perm compositional case) subjected to WAG-CO2 injection. Additionally, the computational cost incurred by each of these phenomena is evaluated, since it represents a great challenge in optimization and probabilistic studies. The following phenomena are evaluated considering a nominal base case: (i) matrix-fracture transfer calculation, (ii) relative permeability hysteresis, (iii) CO2 and CH4 solubilities in aqueous phase, (iv) diffusion, (v) numerical dispersion control models, and (vi) velocity-dependent dispersion. CO2 and CH4 solubilities in the aqueous phase, as well as molecular diffusion, did not have a significant impact on field indicators, but they increased simulation runtime more than two times. Matrix-fracture transfer modeling was the most impactful factor, followed by hysteresis and velocity-dependent dispersion. Therefore, the impact of these phenomena was also investigated in a probabilistic approach, considering an ensemble of 197 geostatistical scenarios under uncertainty. Risk curves revealed that the advanced matrix-fracture transfer models improve sweep efficiency. This effect is mainly due to gravity force which acts as a driving mechanism for the oil moving from the matrix to fractures. The capillary effect, in turn, was small compared to gravity. The impact of dispersion and hysteresis on risk curves were smaller than the effect of matrix-fracture transfer modelling. However, these phenomena are particularly interesting in UNISIM-II-D-CO due to the presence of Super-K facies. Hysteresis, when applied to low and high permeability layers, reduced gas mobility and, consequently, the gas produced, contributing to the NPV for most models under uncertainty. On the other hand, the velocity-dependent dispersion mainly affected fluid flows in the regions adjacent to Super-K layers, promoting better oil recovery. The inclusion of advanced phenomena related to WAG-CO2 injection can hold importance when modeling fractured carbonate fields, like those found in the Pre-Salt in Brazil. Nevertheless, computational costs might make their inclusion impractical in full-field simulation models employed for optimization and probabilistic studies. In such cases, it is recommended to assess low-fidelity models or alternatives to accelerate simulations, focusing mainly on the most impactful phenomena related to WAG-CO2 injection.