Optimizing Gas Export Flexibility for Complex Offshore Reservoirs: A Brazilian Case
Resumo
Oil and gas reservoir management is associated with uncertainties and risks that can significantly impact performance and economic outcomes. The objective of this work is to present how flexibility can be used to manage risk and uncertainty, as well as evaluate the potential flexibility to export and commercialize natural gas as an alternative to water-alternating-gas (WAG) in Brazilian pre-salt fields, identifying favorable and unfavorable scenarios for its implementation. This work presents a case study that addresses the challenges and opportunities of the expected value of the flexibility associated with natural gas export.
The methodology developed presents a structured technique to assess and select optimal strategies under subsurface uncertainties and possible market fluctuations, combining asset portfolio management with reservoir simulation. One of the main advantages of this methodology is that the chance of success is determined through an automated procedure that can be obtained using the production optimization of representative scenarios. Additionally, to illustrate the applicability, we present an application case study to design flexible facilities that allow future expansion for natural gas commercialization, thus capturing possible upsides considering variations in oil and gas selling prices. We also present how these variations impact the overall design to reduce risks and enhance asset value using a simulation model designed to replicate the Brazilian pre-salt fields and forecasting the value of the natural gas in the country.
The results show that this integrated analysis addresses immediate challenges and highlights future advancement potentials through strategic flexibility in Brazil’s natural gas industry, demonstrating that well-planned flexibility can significantly mitigate risks and enhance the resilience of petroleum management strategies. By aligning sustainable petroleum production with CO2 fraction reinjection, we argue that it is more lucrative to produce the natural gas fraction at lower oil prices and that there is a balance point of WAG miscibility to gas price, coupled with enhanced flexibility. We demonstrate how it is possible to increase asset value and mitigate risks, therefore addressing a major concern for stakeholders.
Autores
Felipe R. Branco, Vinicius E. Botechia, Denis J. Schiozer.
