A probabilistic approach for selection of well opening schedule in pre-salt reservoirs using WAG-CO2
Resumo
The development of petroleum reservoirs is essential to maximize the chances of efficient oil and gas production and to meet global energy demands. In previous work, we proposed a simple procedure for fast decision-making considering a deterministic problem if there is no time to perform an optimization process. In this work, we also propose a fast procedure, but focusing on the probabilistic situation, while also estimating the impact of making a bad decision to this problem. Using representative models (RMs) of the UNISIM-II-D-BO benchmark case and a well positioning configuration proposed in the reference approach, with 21 wells, we propose a fast procedure based on the process developed for the deterministic problem. After the application of the fast procedure, we run a robust optimization on the same RMs to have a reference expected monetary value (EMV) for comparisons. At the end, we verified that there is a range of differences between 2.2% and 4.3% between the best value from the robust optimization and values of the proposed approach, depending on the RM considered. We found that a suboptimal choice of well opening schedule could lead to an EMV up to 12% lower than the best value obtained from robust optimization. Therefore, if there is enough time and computational resources, we recommend that decision makers perform the robust optimization. However, we suggest using the proposed faster procedure as an option for cases with time constraints.
Autores
Anthony A. R. Diniz, Vinicius E. Botechia, Denis J. Schiozer.
